We’re trying to make an accurate prediction for Kyiv to fall to Russian forces by April 2022? Current community prediction is 67%. No sources for any claims, because that would be effort.

The text of the question:

Will Kyiv fall to Russian forces by April 2022?

This question will resolve positively if it is publicly reported by at least three reputable media sources or from direct statements from at least four Permanent UNSC members that the majority of Kyiv’s raions are under Russian military control by April 1, 2022.

State of the world:

See appendix for map.

  • Russian incompetence in the north and east.
  • Ukrainian resistance has been far stiffer than anticipated.
  • (Low confidence) Russians are making good progress in the south.
  • 40 mile Russian column stalled (unknown reason) north of Kyiv.
  • Belarussian forces may enter the war, but have not yet. Even if they do, it will take at least a ~week for them to be directly useful.
  • Russia has commited 80% of the forces it staged before the war into Ukraine.
  • Russian Aerospace Forces (fixed wing aircraft, bombers, fighters, fighter-bombers, etc) have not been significantly utilized, but there’s hundreds of them just waiting. Not clear why they haven’t been used.

Unknowns:

  • Size and equipment of Ukrainian forces in Kiev.
  • How long Ukrainian forces have been digging in and entrenching themselves.
  • How motivated and equipped Kyivans are to resist occupation.
  • Amount of equipment present within Kiev.

Reasons why it may happen within March:

  • Encirclement of Kyiv by Russian forces is very likely to succeed. Ukrainian armed forces have been effective on defence, but I doubt they’re able to conduct significant offensive operations against prepared Russian forces. If an encirclement happens, it won’t be broken.
    • The Russians have a large force concentration and they’ll be in relatively open ground when doing the encirclement. Not favourable to an underequipped and less numerous defender.
  • 40 miles is a lot of Russians, a lot of Russian who are waking the fuck up, getting their shit together, and probably getting increasingly permissive orders to use their very destructive weapons systems.
  • Russia has a lot more army it hadn’t staged before the war to commit to the fight, thought it may take weeks for them to be present in Ukraine.
  • I whipped up this really quick overlay of the ten raions of Kiev over a satelite map.
    • Obolon, Desna, Svyatoshyn, and Holoshiv seem like they are mostly non-urban, and some quick spot checks reveal the built up parts are suburban or widely spaced apart apartment buildings. Probably good ground for Russian armor?
    • Is that ~three raions the Rus may take somewhat easily, and then they only need to control three more for the question to resolve yes?
    • Ukrainian Armed Forces may choose not to fight for every inch, and give up hard-to-defend ground to conserve their forces to fight on terrain that is more defensible (the urban core?). While they may be more likely to hold Kiev for a long time if they do this, we’re not interested in if they hold Kiev, but if more than half the raions are under Russian military control.

sotw

Reasons it won’t happen within March:

  • Urban combat is very difficult as the attacker. Very very difficult.

    We’ve captured the kitchen but we’re still fighting for the living room and the bedroom.

  • Ukrainian forces have had a significant amount of time to stockpile supplies for a siege, and to prepare their defences and entrench themselves.
  • Russian morale is low. Throwing them into a brutal urban combat slog, against similar people who are defending their home, this could make morale even worse. Or it could make the fighting bitter and vicious, I don’t know.
  • A month long siege will not break the defenders on its own, urban combat will have to take place. Civilians might starve, but a siege is unlikely to affect the effectiveness of defenders. They will either requisition what food remains in Kiev, or already have stockpiled sufficient food to last at least a month.
  • The encirclement isn’t even complete or guaranteed to happen.
  • There may be a ceasefire and negotiations that would delay the timeline for capturing the city.
  • Putin may choose to pull out of this war through some kind of negotiation without the capture of Kiev.

Grozny

An urban battle of sixty thousand Russians against five thousand Chechens, in a city about a seventh the size. Grozny is frequently cited as a parallel to what is about to happen in Kiev where Russian forces needed to take a city against determined and effective defenders. Grozny took five weeks, if we replayed this battle starting now in Kyiv, I don’t actually know if the question would resolve to yes or no. Perhaps in the first three weeks of Grozny the Russians controlled the majority of the city and the rest of the battle was mop-up. I’m not going to bother looking it up.

It’s often mentioned that with Russian firepower they could turn Kyiv into rubble like they did Grozny, but I’m under the impression turning buildings into ruins doesn’t reduce their defensive value, and in fact may increase it as often happened in WWII.

Comparison:.

  • Chechens/Ukrainians are familiar with the terrain.
  • The ratio of Ukrainians:Russians is likely higher than the ratio of Chechens:Russians.
  • Chechens had weak and somewhat ineffective chain of command, Ukraine does not appear to.
  • Chechens give off this vibe of being really competent and determined, Ukraine less so.
  • Ukraine likely will be better equipped through western shipments of stingers/javelins and other weaponry.
  • Ukrainians are European, Christian, and white (how do I say this delicately? obviously the west is going to care more about white people than “non-white” people, it is racist but it is also a fact Putin, I, and everyone else believes). This may cause the Rus to have more restraint than they did in Grozny.

Conclusion

If I imagine ten differrent worlds starting from now and running for a month, in how many of them is Kiev taken within a month? 6 sounds about right.

What’s the base rate? Siege of Budapest took seven weeks. Grozny took six. Can we say these cities were half captured when the siege was halfway through its calendar time? Sounds reasonable. Kyiv is more than twice as large as both of these cities, so this isn’t a super applicable base rate, but this tells us its not going to happen in a week. Not much information gained from base rate analysis.

Every time I think about this, I flip from thinking 40% to 60% and vice versa. So let’s go with:

50% at 2022-03-02T05:41:50+00:00.

My initial prediction before writing this up was 39%.

Appendix

sotw